The Senate Made the Budget Bill Worse.

Here's what happens next.

The Senate's narrow passage of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" on Tuesday marks a dangerous escalation in what was already a devastating attack on working families. With Vice President JD Vance casting the tie-breaking vote in a 51-50 decision, the Senate has now passed a version that is significantly more harmful than what the House approved in May — and we still have one last chance to stop it.

💰 How the Senate Made a Bad Bill Worse

The numbers alone tell the story of how Senate Republicans abandoned any pretense of fiscal responsibility. The Congressional Budget Office projects the Senate version will reduce federal revenues by $4.5 trillion over the next decade, while reducing spending by $1.2 trillion — creating a net deficit increase of $3.3 trillion, compared to $2.8 trillion in the House version.

But the raw deficit numbers barely scratch the surface. The Senate version includes several changes that make this legislation even more dangerous:

Deeper cuts to healthcare: The Senate plan would require able-bodied adults to work 80 hours per month until age 65 to qualify for Medicaid benefits, and includes a provision that would cap provider taxes at 3.5 percent by 2031 for states that expanded Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office forecasts that nearly 12 million more people would become uninsured under the Senate plan.

Larger debt ceiling increase: The Senate plan would lift the nation's debt limit by $5 trillion, a sizable increase compared to the House bill's $4 trillion. This isn't just accounting — it represents a massive transfer of wealth from working people to bondholders and the wealthy.

Weaker climate rollbacks: While still devastating for environmental progress, the Senate version defers the expiration of certain green energy tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act, rather than eliminating them outright as House conservatives had demanded.

🏛️ A Historical Precedent for Fiscal Recklessness

This isn't the first time we've seen a massive giveaway to the wealthy disguised as economic policy. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which this bill extends, followed a similar playbook: promise broad benefits while delivering the vast majority of gains to corporations and high earners. The Senate bill would deliver some of its biggest benefits to the top 1% of U.S. households, earning $663,000 or more in 2025.

But there's something historically unprecedented about using budget reconciliation — a process designed for deficit reduction — to blow a $3.3 trillion hole in the federal budget. As Maya MacGuineas of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes, Senate Republicans have set "a bad precedent for future fiscal policy" by treating the extension of 2017 tax cuts as costless.

This accounting gimmick creates a dangerous new normal where any party with narrow control can claim massive spending or tax cuts are "free" by treating current policy as the baseline, regardless of fiscal reality.

🏠 What This Would Mean for Your Family

If the House accepts the Senate changes and this bill becomes law, here's what it would mean for ordinary Americans in concrete terms:

Healthcare becomes a luxury: Nearly 12 million people would lose health insurance coverage. If you're currently on Medicaid and between 50-64 years old, you'd need to work 80 hours per month to keep your coverage, even if you're caring for elderly parents or dealing with your health issues. Rural hospitals would face devastating cuts to their funding, resulting in longer drives for emergency care and increased hospital closures in small communities.

Food insecurity spreads: The bill would require states to assume a greater share of the cost of providing food assistance, with the amount determined by a formula tied to erroneous payments. Translation: Many states will cut food stamp benefits rather than pay the federal government's bills, leaving families to choose between rent and groceries.

The debt burden falls on working families: While wealthy households get massive tax breaks, the $3.3 trillion added to the national debt means higher interest payments that working families will ultimately pay for through reduced services or higher taxes down the road. As independent analysts note, the bill's increase in the national debt effectively serves as a wealth transfer from younger to older Americans.

Climate investments are at risk: The rollback of clean energy incentives means fewer good-paying jobs in solar and wind energy, higher electricity bills as we remain dependent on volatile fossil fuel markets, and a less competitive position as other countries race ahead in the clean energy economy.

Small tax breaks for show: Yes, the bill includes some popular provisions, such as no taxes on tips and overtime pay, but these are temporary (expiring in 2028) and come with income restrictions. Meanwhile, the permanent corporate tax cuts and benefits for high earners dwarf these modest provisions for working people.

🔥 Why This Version Is More Dangerous Now

The Senate changes have created three specific dangers that make this version of the bill more threatening than what passed the House:

Political momentum: After more than 24 hours of painstaking negotiations, Senate Republicans secured the support of Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, who had been a key holdout concerned about Medicaid cuts affecting her state. But the political cost was revealing: even a handwritten attempt to help out Alaska on Medicaid was thrown out by the parliamentarian at the last minute, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer successfully fought a provision that Senate Republicans were trying to use to get Murkowski's vote — a special new preference for Alaska that wasn't even disclosed to Democrats. This gives the bill crucial political momentum heading into the House vote, but also exposes how desperate Republican leadership became to secure votes.

Procedural advantages: The Senate's ability to pass anything at all sends a signal that Republicans can overcome internal divisions when it matters most. Three Republican senators — Thom Tillis of North Carolina, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Susan Collins of Maine — joined all Democrats in voting against the bill, but it wasn't enough.

Normalized extremism: By making the House version look "moderate" in comparison, the Senate has shifted the debate rightward. Independent analysts have stated that the bill's tightening of eligibility for food and health safety net programs would effectively reduce the incomes of low-income Americans and increase their costs for food and healthcare. Still, these impacts are now being discussed as acceptable trade-offs rather than moral outrages.

🎯 The House: Our Last Line of Defense

The bill now returns to the House, where it faces serious opposition from multiple directions. Speaker Mike Johnson is working with a razor-thin majority and can't afford many defections, and several Republican factions are already expressing opposition:

Freedom Caucus conservatives are furious about the impact on the deficit. The House Freedom Caucus issued a public statement arguing that the Senate bill would add $1.3 trillion to the federal deficit. In contrast, the House-passed bill would increase the federal deficit by $72 billion. Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris declared he would vote "NO" on the Senate version, saying it "doesn't do enough to eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse in Medicaid" and "greatly increases the deficit".

Moderate Republicans are concerned about Medicaid cuts affecting their constituents. At least six moderate House Republicans are planning to vote "no" on the Senate bill in its current form, as they air concerns about changes to Medicaid and the rollback of green energy tax credits.

Blue-state Republicans are angry about changes to the state and local tax (SALT) deduction. While the Senate maintained the $40,000 cap that was negotiated in the House, the precedent of Senate changes has these members worried about further modifications.

⚡ What We Can Do Now

This is not the time for despair — it's the time for strategic action. While the bill will likely pass, how it passes and what political price Republicans pay matter enormously for future fights.

Speaker Mike Johnson is working with a razor-thin majority and can't afford many defections; multiple House Republicans have already expressed concerns with parts of the Senate bill. Even if we can't stop the bill entirely, every difficult vote we force, every public statement we extract, and every crack we expose in the Republican coalition weakens their ability to pass future harmful legislation.

Call your Representative immediately: The most effective action you can take right now is calling your House representative's office. You can find your representative using tools like GovTrack's congressional contact system or use the 5 Calls app, which provides scripts and contact information for timely political actions. If your representative is a Republican, emphasize the fiscal irresponsibility and broken promises to conservative voters. If your representative is a Democrat, thank them for their expected opposition and ask them to speak out publicly against the bill.

Focus on the procedural vote: The House Rules Committee has advanced the bill to the floor, but there are several procedural hurdles Republicans must overcome to vote on final passage. Forcing Republicans to take difficult votes on procedure exposes the bill's unpopularity and creates campaign ammunition for 2026.

Target vulnerable Republicans: Pay special attention to Republicans from moderate districts, especially those representing areas with high numbers of Medicaid recipients. The Congressional Budget Office reports that those in the lowest 10 percent of the income scale would see their resources reduced while those in the highest 10 percent would see their resources increased. These members are most likely to feel pressure from constituents.

Document everything: Even if this bill passes, nonpartisan polls released this month show that voters have a negative perception of the bill. Every vote in favor becomes campaign material for the 2026 midterms.

Weather disruptions: Speaker Johnson acknowledged that storms across the East Coast have canceled or delayed flights for House members, which could impact the ability of GOP lawmakers to return to Washington for the vote. This creates additional uncertainty that could delay or complicate passage.

The time for half-measures and polite dissent has passed. This bill represents a fundamental assault on the social contract that binds our society together, transferring unprecedented wealth upward while abandoning the most vulnerable among us. While it will likely pass, every voice raised in opposition, every difficult vote we force, and every crack we expose in their coalition matter for the fight ahead.